文章基本信息

标题：The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
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作者：Ueckerdt, Falko ; Frieler, Katja ; Lange, Stefan 等
期刊名称：Earth System Dynamics
电子版ISSN：2190-4995
出版年度：2019
卷号：10
期号：4
页码：741-763
DOI：10.5194/esd-10-741-2019
语种：English
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：Abstract. Both climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incureconomic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level ofglobal warming (Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b, 2018; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigatingcosts increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (IPCC, 2014a; Luderer et al., 2013;Rogelj et al., 2015). Here, we show that the global warming limit thatminimizes this century's total economic costs of climate change lies between1.9 and 2 ∘C, if temperature changes continue to impact nationaleconomic growth rates as observed in the past and if instantaneous growtheffects are neither compensated nor amplified by additional growth effectsin the following years. The result is robust across a wide range of normativeassumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion. Wecombine estimates of climate-change impacts on economic growth for 186countries (applying an empirical damage function from Burke et al., 2015)with mitigation costs derived from a state-of-the-art energy–economy–climatemodel with a wide range of highly resolved mitigation options (Kriegleret al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2013, 2015). Our purely economic assessment,even though it omits non-market damages, provides support for theinternational Paris Agreement on climate change. The political goal of limitingglobal warming to “well below 2 degrees” is thus also an economically optimal goalgiven above assumptions on adaptation and damage persistence.