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标题：Modelling and Forecasting of Mung Production in India
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作者：K. P. Vishwajith ; P. K. Sahu ; P. Mishra 等
期刊名称：Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology
印刷版ISSN：2457-1024
出版年度：2019
卷号：34
期号：1
页码：1-19
DOI：10.9734/cjast/2019/v34i130118
语种：English
出版社：Sciencedomain International
摘要：A large proportion of the Indian population is vegetarian and pulses are important sources of protein in the daily diet .In this paper an attempt has been made to summarize the overall nature of area, production and productivity of mung in India. By and large there has been considerable expansion in area, production and productivity of mung in all the states under study including whole India during the study period. Among the states under study, the maximum annual growth in area (9.75%) and production (14.55%) of mung was observed in Rajasthan. Bihar stands first in productivity of mung among the states under study. Rajasthan, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have fails to reach national average per hectare production of 367.37 kg/ha. In this paper an attempt has been made to summarize these measures along with some new measures with an objective to study the yield sustainability of particular crop over the growing regions and compare across the states/regions. Sustainability in yield of mung in different states along with whole India has been measured with the help of existing and proposed measures of sustainability indices. Whole India is showing higher sustainability in yield of mung as per the two existing and proposed methods. According to all the indices including developed two methods Rajasthan is having comparatively lower sustainability to produce mung among the states under study. Results of existing measures and proposed measure are almost in conformity with each other. From the forecasted value, it can be said that, mung productivity of India would increase to 408.84 kg/ha in 2022 as compared to 2012. In Mung, area, production and productivity Rajasthan would be leading state of India in 2022.This projection would be helpful for policy implication and planning.
关键词：Productivity;ARIMAx;GARCH;sustainability;forecasting