文章基本信息

标题：Global Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis based on Two Representative Socioeconomic Scenarios
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作者：Shinichiro FUJIMORI ; Toshihiko MASUI ; Yuzuru MATSUOKA 等
期刊名称：Global Environmental Research
印刷版ISSN：1343-8808
出版年度：2013
卷号：17
期号：1
语种：English
出版社：国际环境研究会
摘要：This paper analyzes an ambitious climate mitigation target, namely to halve global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions by 2050 relative to those of 1990. Two representative socioeconomic scenarios are considered. A CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is used as the analytical tool. Although there is great uncertainty about the future, we could ascertain several things. 1) The emission reduction target could cause a GDP loss of more than 1.2% globally, with large variation among countries and regions. 2) Renewable energy and CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) are fundamental technologies for achieving a great GHG emission reduction. 3) Asian regions cannot avoid putting as great an effort into reducing GHG emissions as other countries. These findings imply that such a large reduction is feasible within our scenario assumptions; however, technological progress and diffusion should be supported in order to make those needed fundamental technologies available. The regions which would suffer a large GDP (Gross Domestic Product) loss should be aided and an international policy framework needs to be developed with such losses considered.