文章基本信息

标题：Climate change: Sources of uncertainty in precipitation and temperature projections for Denmark
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作者：Ernesto Pasten-Zapata ; Torben O. Sonnenborg ; Jens Christian Refsgaard 等
期刊名称：Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin
印刷版ISSN：1604-8156
出版年度：2019
卷号：43
页码：1-6
DOI：10.34194/GEUSB-201943-01-02
语种：English
出版社：De Nationale Geologiske Undersoegelser for Danmark og Groenland
摘要：General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the main tools used to assess the impacts of climate change. Due to their coarse resolution, with cells of 100 km × 100 km, GCMs are dynamically downscaled using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that better incorporate the local physical features and simulate the climate of a smaller region, e.g. a country. However, RCMs tend to have systematic biases when compared with local observations, such as deviations from day-to-day measurements, and from the mean and extreme events. As a result, confidence in the model projections decreases. One way to address this is to correct the RCM output using statistical methods that relate the simulations with the observations, producing bias-corrected (BC) projections.