文章基本信息

标题：Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments
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作者：Olli Karjalainen ; Juha Aalto ; Miska Luoto 等
期刊名称：Scientific Data
电子版ISSN：2052-4463
出版年度：2019
卷号：6
DOI：10.1038/sdata.2019.37
语种：English
出版社：Nature Publishing Group
摘要：Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041鈥?060 and 2061鈥?080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses.