文章基本信息

标题：Public debt, capital stock and economic growth: An analysis of fiscal sustainability in Brazil
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作者：Tito Moreira
期刊名称：Journal of Economics and International Finance
电子版ISSN：2006-9812
出版年度：2013
卷号：5
期号：9
页码：343-356
DOI：10.5897/JEIF2013.0532
语种：English
出版社：Academic Journals
摘要：This article analyzes the fiscal sustainability of the Brazilian economy in recent decades. It evaluates the solvency of public debt in Brazil through the cointegration tests that showed a long-term relationship between public revenue and expenditure in the period of 1975 (I) to 2010 (II). The results show a solvency ratio between the Revenue / GDP ratio and expense / GDP ratio. That is, for each $ 1.00 spent per unit of product, one gets a return of $ 1, 0078 of revenue collected per unit of product. On the other hand, the total revenue and total expenditure (deflated by the IGP-DI) do not pass through the solvency test if revenue from seigniorage is not included, that is, for each $ 1.00 spent deflated by the IGP-DI, one gets a return of $ 0, 9922 of revenue collected deflated by the IGP-DI, a value less than $ 1.00. Furthermore, fiscal sustainability tests for the period 1964 to 2008 reveal two important results: i) an increase in debt/capital stock ratio negatively affects the growth rate of capital stock and also negatively affects the growth rate of the product; ii) fiscal policy is weakly sustainable which could lead to a possible problem of insolvency.
关键词：Fiscal solvency;fiscal sustainability;debt/capital stock ratio