文章基本信息

标题：Monte Carlo Simulation in the Assessment ofEconomic-financial Uncertainties of aManufacturing Industry
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作者：Gislaine Cristina Batistela ; Danilo Simões
期刊名称：Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology
印刷版ISSN：2457-1024
出版年度：2018
卷号：25
期号：1
页码：1-7
语种：English
出版社：Sciencedomain International
摘要：For accurate decisions in capital investments assessments into industrial projects, it is recommended to consider the uncertainties intrinsic to the capital budget. In this way, our objective was to assess the economic and financial viability of a manufacturing industry, based on the uncertainty of the elements that make up the cash flow of this industry that performs the sawing of Pinus sp. logs, located in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. As a premise, the deterministic discounted cash flow was constructed; therefore, probability distributions were assigned to the input variables of the mathematical model, for the stochastic values of the quantitative methods, traditionally employed in investment analysis, through Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the investment project is economically viable; in addition, it presented an economic-financial risk that can be considered low.
关键词：Stochastic model;cash flow;Pinus;net present value