文章基本信息

标题：Interpretation of EC Fine Grid Numerical Prediction Products in the Forecast of Frozen Fog in Urumqi Airport
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作者：Hongru Yang ; Nan Wang ; Yulin Qin 等
期刊名称：Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection
印刷版ISSN：2327-4336
电子版ISSN：2327-4344
出版年度：2018
卷号：6
期号：9
页码：100-110
DOI：10.4236/gep.2018.69008
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Pub
摘要：In this paper, Urumqi Airport time-lapse ground man-made observation data from November 2015 to February 2017, European fine grid (0.25 × 0.25) initial field (20 o’clock) and the forecast field within 24 hours were utilized. From November 2015 to February 2016, the relevant materials were used as research samples (a total of 948 times), and from November 2016 to February 2017 as test samples (a total of 922 times), statistical methods were used to establish the scoring standards. And each relevant element was scored. After the score, the score level range was delineated, and the visibility forecast was performed according to the scope. The conclusions are as follows: 1) European fine grid forecast products are with good correspondence with the visibility of this field are 850 hPa and 2 m high temperature inversion, 850 hPa relative humidity and 850 hPa wind field over the field. 2) Through the statistical analysis of scores, it is defined that the score below 400 is level 4, the score above 1000 is level 1, the difference is significant, and the forecast indication is strong. Level 2 and level 3 are more evenly distributed, with no more concentrated fractions. 3) Applying the test sample to test the above indicators. The forecast accuracy of level 1 is 61.2%, and the forecast accuracy of level 4 is 97.2%, so level 1 and level 4 are expected to obtain better forecast results, which is of practical application value.
关键词：Airport Freezing FogForecast Product ReleaseClassification Prediction