文章基本信息

标题：Indonesian Macro Economics Modelling Mundell - Fleming Approach in 2000-2010
本地全文：下载
作者：Syamri Syamsuddin ; Syamri Syamsuddin ; M. Ismail 等
期刊名称：American Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：2166-4951
电子版ISSN：2166-496X
出版年度：2017
卷号：7
期号：3
页码：110-124
DOI：10.5923/j.economics.20170703.02
语种：English
出版社：Scientific & Academic Publishing Co.
摘要：Macro economic modeling in Indonesia is not separated from the real world economic dynamics and science dynamics developments as well as a number of strategic issues, such as economic growth and inflation. The analytical methods used in this study is Autoregression Vector Analysis Method (VAR). VAR model treats all variables systematically operates without question the exogenous and endogenous.The study results show that (first), the consumption equation shows that the variable real interest rates, disposable income and previous disposable income significant influence spending the consumption onlag=1. To review investment equation shown by different real GDP and Investments previous period no significant effect against investment expenditures with negative line onlag=1 (second). That level of exchange rate, export of the previous period and the real GDP of the USA have a significant effect against to the Indonesian export. To review the real USA GDP variable indicates negative relationship. The phenomenon showed that at short term the high real USA GDP became reduce purchasing goods domestic exports, in theory should increase purchases of Indonesian export goods inlag=1, (Third). From simultaneous test shows that the variable import only influenced by the exchange rate onlag=1, with positive relation when the dollar strengthened or otherwise negatively related to depreciation of the domestic currency, (fourth). Real interest rates does not show a significant influence on money supply. Variable of the money supply influenced significantly by the real GDP on the current period, real GDP of the previous period and the previous period of money demand which each variable influence on the lag=1, (fifth). That the Indonesian economy had a tendency with backward looking characters, shown by all variables behavior goods market (IS curve), so the IS curve as real sector position as activator macro-economy, still more tiedon backward looking aspect than its with monetary instruments that in setting policy is forward looking, (sixth). In simultaneous the amount of disposable income on the current period and previous period positive effect against to consumption expenditures. It means instrument on tax had negative effect to consumption expenditures. Interest rates negatively impact consumer spending, and subsequent effect on the aggregate demand and short-term economic equilibrium. With simulation test, the interest rate is positively related to consumption and investment, and subsequently on aggregate demand, (seventh). That the exchange rate variable significant effect on exports and imports, each with a positive response. However with more big amount of elasticity of exports from the elasticity of imports, (eighth). Assuming other factors considered permanent (ceteris paribus) then with rise in real interest rates and the depreciation of the variable exchange, giving impact at decreasing national income (real output). Both instruments (the real interest rate and exchange rate) affects at real GDP and second instrument used by the monetary authority through interest rate line and exchange rateaffects on real output.The study results indicate macroeconomic models Mundell-Fleming approach to macro economic based for developing country, review model is a version of the IMF's macro-economy cointegrated and able to explain the phenomenon of Indonesian macro economy, but the modelingyet fully able to predict the macro-economic balance of the long term.
关键词：Indonesian Macroeconomic Modeling and Mundell-Fleming Approach