文章基本信息

标题：Statistical Reconstruction of the Antarctic Oscillation Index Based on Multiple Proxies
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作者：Zhang Zi-Yin ; Gong Dao-Yi ; He Xue-Zhao 等
期刊名称：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
印刷版ISSN：1674-2834
电子版ISSN：2376-6123
出版年度：2010
卷号：3
期号：5
页码：283-287
DOI：10.1080/16742834.2010.11446883
语种：English
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (<50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957–89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500–1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r2, RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ∼460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal time-scales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ∼2.4, ∼2.6, ∼6.3, ∼24.1, and ∼37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.
关键词：Antarctic Oscillation; reconstruction; proxy; interannual and interdecadal variability