文章基本信息

标题：Estimation of Economic Development in Papua New Guinea: Linear Trend Analysis or Moving Average Model?
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作者：Ingrid Majerová ; Ingrid Majerová ; Tomáš Pražák 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2014
卷号：110
页码：450-460
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.889
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractA time series analysis is often used for estimation of economic development of countries. However, the prediction based on development of macroeconomic indicators might be analyzed by various models. This article aims to verify the hypothesis of differences in predictions using linear trend analysis and moving average model on the example of Papua New Guinea using the indicators such as gross domestic product, the growth of gross domestic product, inflation, merchandise trade balance and budgetary balance as percentage of gross domestic product. It was found out that these two types of analyses considerably diverge in their results
关键词：linear trend analysis;ARIMA model;gross domestic product;inflation;trade balance;total debt