文章基本信息

标题：Exploring the Influence of Seasonal Uncertainty in Project Risk Management
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作者：Fernando Acebes ; Fernando Acebes ; Javier Pajares 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2014
卷号：119
页码：329-338
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractFor years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline.In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.
关键词：Uncertainty and variability;Risk Management;Monte Carlo Simulation;Criticality;Schedule Risk Baseline