文章基本信息

标题：Effect of Network's Morphology and Merge Bias Correction Procedures on Project Duration Mean and Variance
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作者：Germán Eduardo Giraldo González ; Germán Eduardo Giraldo González ; Gerardo Opina Hernández 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2014
卷号：119
页码：2-11
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.003
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractMany authors have discussed the source of errors in PERT networks as follows: Uncertainty in the mean and variance calculations of (a) activity's durations and (b) total project duration, and its related distributions. Different corrections formulas and procedures were proposed. In the other hand, there's an existing risk of delay related to the project morphology, in terms of the number of activities, shape and complexity of the project network. However, the relationship of network's morphology and the uncertainty of the whole project's duration are poorly studied. In this research, a set of project networks with different morphology were generated and several methods available in literature (original PERT included) were used to estimate the parameters (mean and variance) of total project duration, then comparing them to the Monte Carlo Simulation as a representation of the reality, and the best and most accurate method(s) were chosen.
关键词：Project Management;Networks;PERT;mean;variance;morphology;merge bias