文章基本信息

标题：A Survey-Based Probabilistic Statistical Approach for Characterizing Drivers’ Negative Behaviors
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作者：Nada B. Al Naser ; Nada B. Al Naser ; Yaser E. Hawas 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2012
卷号：48
页码：1108-1117
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1087
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractThis paper aims at characterizing the behavioral issues of road users of relevance to traffic safety in the UAE. A stated preference driver survey was used for data collection. Statistical analyses were conducted to identify the most common types of violations particularly associated with negative behavioral forms, and associate these behavioral forms to probable causes.A probabilistic analysis approach was adopted based on the results of statistical cross classification to identify the probabilities (penetration rate among the overall drivers population) of the frequent violators and the most common negative behavior forms. A step further was accomplished by estimating the joint probabilities combining more than one behavioral form. This is particularly important in identifying the joint negative forms of significant threat to the society, and quantifying their magnitudes. Results identified speeding, use of mobile phones, not using seat belts, and not giving priority to pedestrians as most alarming violations. The joint probabilities were used to estimate particular threatening behaviors such as speeding combined with drugs and alcohol, or combined with use of mobile phones while driving, etc.Statistical Chi-Square tests were also conducted to estimate the strength of relation among the violations and their causes. Results indicated a strong association between speeding and being in hurry on good roadway conditions. Cross relationships were thoroughly investigated allowing for violation-cause studies as well as behavioral form-violations studies. The probabilistic approach together with the statistical Chi-square tests were used to identify critical behavioral issues of immediate intervention needs, to quantify their penetration levels (magnitude) in the society, and as such were used to develop a coherent set of recommendations to remedy such critical behavioral forms.
关键词：Drivers’ behavior;drivers’ violations;traffic safety;probabilistic analysis;statistical analysis;joint probabilities