文章基本信息

标题：Evaluating the uncertainty of hydrological model simulations coupled with meteorological forecasts at different spatial scales
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作者：A. Ceppi ; A. Ceppi ; G. Ravazzani 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2010
卷号：2
期号：6
页码：7631-7632
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2010.05.152
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractIn recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modeling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for hydrological purposes. In this study a hindcast for some precipitation events, occurred in Piemonte region and in the Maggiore Lake basin, is analyzed to evaluate how the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts influences the performance of hydrological predictions at different spatial scales. This hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems and deterministic forecasts based on high resolution atmospheric models. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.
关键词：Hydro-meteorological chain;hydrological model uncertainty;Map-D-Phase;QDF;ensemble hydrological forecast