文章基本信息

标题：Should the euro area be concerned about deflation?
本地全文：下载
作者：Gerhard Illing ; Gerhard Illing
期刊名称：Intereconomics
印刷版ISSN：0020-5346
电子版ISSN：1613-964X
出版年度：2014
卷号：49
期号：3
页码：114-115
DOI：10.1007/s10272-014-0494-y
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：During the past few years, headline infl ation (the change in the harmonised consumer price index, HCPI) in the euro area has fallen steadily, from three per cent at the end of 2011 to 0.7 per cent in April 2014. It is now far below the ECB’s target rate of infl ation of below, but close to, two per cent. Part of the recent decline in infl ation across the euro area is a temporary phenomenon – mainly the result of falling energy prices. But core in- fl ation shows a similar trend, falling from two per cent at end-2011 to 1.1 per cent in April 2014. More worryingly, infl ation expectations (according to the ECB survey of profes- sional forecasters) have also been falling recently: in Q2 2014, the two-year ahead mean forecast is now just 1.4 per cent (compared to 1.9 per cent in 2011). Even the fi ve-year forecast, which has been well anchored at two per cent for a long time, recently declined to 1.8 per cent. Some argue that falling prices can be a good thing, allowing us simply to buy more stuff. Others warn of the risk of a negative defl ationary spiral, driving the euro area into a great depression similar to that observed in the early 1930s, with consumers anxiously postponing consumption and fi rms cutting down on investment, thus reinforc- ing an accelerating decline in the price level.