文章基本信息

标题：Accounting for uncertainty and variation in accessibility metrics for public transport sketch planning
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作者：Matthew Wigginton Conway ; Andrew Byrd ; Michael van Eggermond 等
期刊名称：Journal of Transport and Land Use
印刷版ISSN：1938-7849
出版年度：2018
卷号：11
期号：1
DOI：10.5198/jtlu.2018.1074
语种：English
出版社：University of Minnesota * Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geo-Engineering
摘要：Accessibility is increasingly used as a metric when evaluating changes to public transport systems. Transit travel times contain variation depending on when one departs relative to when a transit vehicle arrives, and how well transfers are coordinated given a particular timetable. In addition, there isnecessarily uncertainty in the value of the accessibility metric during sketch planning processes, due to scenarios which are underspecified because detailed schedule information is not yet available. This article presents a method to extend the concept of "reliable" accessibility to transit to address the first issue, and create confidence intervals and hypothesis tests to address the second.
关键词：accessibility;public transport;scenario planning;probabilistic scenario comparison