文章基本信息

标题：Empirically Testing for Dynamic Causality between Promotions and Sales Beer Promotions and Sales in England
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作者：Ray Huffaker ; Andrew Fearne
期刊名称：Proceedings in Food System Dynamics
印刷版ISSN：2194-511X
出版年度：2014
页码：270-274
语种：English
出版社：Proceedings in Food System Dynamics
摘要：We devise a decision tool to help economic researchers select a causal detection method compatible with real-world dynamics of an economic system under investigation. We apply it to test for dynamic causality between promotions and sales of a case-study beer brand in England. We find evidence that promotions and sales data for the brand are generated by a nonlinear deterministic dynamic system. Under these circumstances, conventional Granger Causality detection methods impose unreasonable restrictions on real-world market dynamics, and thus must give way to recently formulated Cross Convergent Mapping (CCM) methods. Our application of CCM methods provides strong evidence that promotions and sales for the brand are bi-causal. Promotions have a long-term impact on sales, and sales have a long-term impact on promotion decisions.