文章基本信息

标题：Using systems thinking to design actionable futures: a nuclear weapons example
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作者：Leon D. Young ; Leon D. Young
期刊名称：European Journal of Futures Research
印刷版ISSN：2195-4194
电子版ISSN：2195-2248
出版年度：2018
卷号：6
期号：1
页码：10-1-10-9
DOI：10.1186/s40309-018-0138-8
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：AbstractIt is a general observation that foresight is analogised with forecast. Yet foresight, or futures thinking, is not predictive or deterministic. The misperception appears to be based on the belief that foresight does not often result in tangible results that are immediately applicable within an executive or policy decision arena. Foresight, it is assumed, is unfounded on reality and thus not relevant to fast tempo or strategic level operations. This paper contends that the use of evidence-based methods allows foresight work to be immediately operational and useful.Using a case study of nuclear weapon security within Pakistan, this paper explores the structured use of systems thinking, scenario development and options analysis to develop plausible, feasible and actionable strategic policy options. The case study demonstrates that it is possible to develop quantifiable options derived out of traditional foresight methods. This paper argues that useful foresight needs to be tangible and provide feasible options.
关键词：Systems thinking;National strategy;Scenario development;Security policy;Options analysis;Foresight