文章基本信息

标题：Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach
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作者：Ajith Kumar Parlikad ; Duncan McFarlane
期刊名称：International Journal of Sustainable Engineering
印刷版ISSN：1939-7038
出版年度：2010
卷号：3
期号：2
页码：106-120
DOI：10.1080/19397030903499810
语种：English
出版社：Taylor & Francis Group
摘要：There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.
关键词：Keywordsproduct recovery decisionsvalue of informationBayes' factorprobabilitydecision modelling