文章基本信息

标题：Simultaneous modeling of developer behavior and land prices in UrbanSim
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作者：Daniel Felsenstein ; Eyal Ashbel
期刊名称：Journal of Transport and Land Use
印刷版ISSN：1938-7849
出版年度：2010
卷号：3
期号：2
DOI：10.5198/jtlu.v3i2.175
语种：English
出版社：University of Minnesota * Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geo-Engineering
摘要：A strong inter-dependence exists between the decision to develop land and the expected returns to be gained from that development. Current practice in UrbanSim modeling treats developer behavior and the emergence of land prices as independent processes. This assumes that land prices are exogenous to the interaction between buyers and sellers—an assumption that is difficult to sustain in urban economics and real estate research. This paper presents an attempt to model the two processes as occurring simultaneously. Using the UrbanSim model for metropolitan Tel Aviv, we compare the results of forecasts for densities (residential and non-residential) and land values for the period 2001–2020. Our results show that simultaneous estimation tends to produce more accentuated outcomes and volatile trends. The validity of these results and the implications of this approach in the wider context of land use modeling are discussed.
关键词：Land price; developer behavior; simultaneous equations; UrbanSim; endogeneity