文章基本信息

标题：Assessment of the Potential Occurrence of Dry Period in the Long Term for Pahang State, Malaysia
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作者：Ahmad Saifuddin Othman ; Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat
期刊名称：MATEC Web of Conferences
电子版ISSN：2261-236X
出版年度：2018
卷号：150
DOI：10.1051/matecconf/201815003004
语种：English
出版社：EDP Sciences
摘要：The interference of climate circulation and continuous rising of surface temperature every year has caused the atmosphere composition change which gives serious impact to water resource management. Pahang is among of the affected states by El Nino that hit Malaysia in recent years which led to water depletion at several water plants. Based on the current situation, this study focuses on 1) simulate the average rain pattern using statistical downscaling; 2) identify the severity index and dry duration occurrence in the catchment area. Predicting potential changes in the climate events is important to evaluate the level of climate change in the critical region. Therefore, the integration of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) have been conducted to study the potential occurrence of the dry period due to climate change for year 2020s and year 2050s. The results reveal that the dry condition is high during the mid-year. The lowest SPI value is estimated to reach -2.2 which can be classified as extreme. The potential dry period is expected to increase 2.5% and 3.3% in 2020 and 2050, respectively.