文章基本信息

标题：Business Bankruptcy Prediction Based on Survival Analysis Approach
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作者：Ming-Chang Lee
期刊名称：International Journal of Computer Science & Information Technology (IJCSIT)
印刷版ISSN：0975-4660
电子版ISSN：0975-3826
出版年度：2014
卷号：6
期号：2
页码：103
出版社：Academy & Industry Research Collaboration Center (AIRCC)
摘要：This study sampled companies listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange that examined financial distress between2003 and 2009. It uses the survival analysis to find the main indicators which can explain the businessbankruptcy in Taiwan. This paper uses the Cox Proportional Hazard Model to assess the usefulness oftraditional financial ratios and market variables as predictors of the probability of business failure to agiven time. This paper presents empirical results of a study regarding 12 financial ratios as predictors ofbusiness failure in Taiwan. It showed that it does not need many ratios to be able to anticipate potentialbusiness bankruptcy. The financial distress probability model is constructed using Profitability, Leverage,Efficiency and Valuation ratio variables. In the proposed steps of business failure prediction model, it useddetail SAS procedure. The study proves that the accuracies of classification of the mode in overall accuracyof classification are 87.93%.
关键词：Business Failure prediction; Survival Analysis; Cox Proportional Hazard model; Logistic model