文章基本信息

标题：The amplification of risk in experimental diffusion chains
本地全文：下载
作者：Mehdi Moussaïd ; Henry Brighton ; Wolfgang Gaissmaier 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2015
卷号：112
期号：18
页码：5631-5636
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1421883112
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：SignificancePublic risk perception of hazardous events such as contagious outbreaks, terrorist attacks, and climate change are difficult-to-anticipate social phenomena. It is unclear how risk information will spread through social networks, how laypeople influence each other, and what social dynamics generate public opinion. We examine how messages detailing risks are transmitted from one person to another in experimental diffusion chains and how people influence each other as they propagate this information. Although the content of a message is gradually lost over repeated social transmissions, subjective perceptions of risk propagate and amplify due to social influence. These results provide quantitative insights into the public response to risk and the formation of often unnecessary fears and anxieties. Understanding how people form and revise their perception of risk is central to designing efficient risk communication methods, eliciting risk awareness, and avoiding unnecessary anxiety among the public. However, public responses to hazardous events such as climate change, contagious outbreaks, and terrorist threats are complex and difficult-to-anticipate phenomena. Although many psychological factors influencing risk perception have been identified in the past, it remains unclear how perceptions of risk change when propagated from one person to another and what impact the repeated social transmission of perceived risk has at the population scale. Here, we study the social dynamics of risk perception by analyzing how messages detailing the benefits and harms of a controversial antibacterial agent undergo change when passed from one person to the next in 10-subject experimental diffusion chains. Our analyses show that when messages are propagated through the diffusion chains, they tend to become shorter, gradually inaccurate, and increasingly dissimilar between chains. In contrast, the perception of risk is propagated with higher fidelity due to participants manipulating messages to fit their preconceptions, thereby influencing the judgments of subsequent participants. Computer simulations implementing this simple influence mechanism show that small judgment biases tend to become more extreme, even when the injected message contradicts preconceived risk judgments. Our results provide quantitative insights into the social amplification of risk perception, and can help policy makers better anticipate and manage the public response to emerging threats.
关键词：risk perception ; opinion dynamics ; diffusion chains ; social transmission ; collective behavior