文章基本信息

标题：Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic
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作者：Tereza Slováčková ; Tereza Slováčková ; Naďa Birčiaková 等
期刊名称：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1877-0428
出版年度：2016
卷号：220
页码：472-480
DOI：10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.522
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：AbstractThe paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol), and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box-Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.
关键词：alcohol consumption;pure alcohol;trend forecast prediction;the ARIMA model