文章基本信息

标题：Sensitivity of hydropower performance to climate change: A case study of a Brazilian Company
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作者：Euridice M. ; rade ; Jose Paulo Cosenza 等
期刊名称：African Journal of Business Management
印刷版ISSN：1993-8233
出版年度：2012
卷号：6
期号：32
页码：9250-9259
DOI：10.5897/AJBM11.2695
语种：English
出版社：Academic Journals
摘要：This paper presents an overview of the energy sector, which is characterized by centralized institutional management in the Federal Government, a regulated contractual environment and heavy reliance on hydroelectric power and the concentration of the energy matrix in hydroelectric power. The focus of this study centers on strategic risk because of the issues of global climate change. Our goal is to show that while the government planning gives priority to meeting growing demand, it ignores the possible long-term effects of climate change, which may have a crucial impact on the hydroelectric power industry. We discuss this question in the context of a major player in this segment, the São Francisco Hydroelectric Company (CHESF). To show the importance of adapting the competitive strategy to the possible impacts of climate change, we constructed a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) matrix with various scenarios that might be inferred by the year 2050. The results show that the reduction of water flows and reservoir levels due to climate change represent the main strategic risks of the company and could threaten energy security throughout Brazil unless some preventive procedures to mitigate climate change are implemented.
关键词：Business risk; hydroelectric power generation; climate vulnerability