文章基本信息

标题：An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria
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作者：Mohamadou L. Fadiga ; Iheanacho Okike ; Bernard Bett 等
期刊名称：Bio-based and Applied Economics
印刷版ISSN：2280-6172
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：45-61
DOI：10.13128/BAE-12713
语种：English
出版社：Bio-based and Applied Economics
摘要：This study assesses the intervention against avian influenza in Nigeria. It applied a simple compartmental model to define endemic and burn-out scenarios for the risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria. It followed with the derivation of low and high mortality risks associated to each scenario. The estimated risk parameters were subsequently used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease, had no intervention been carried out. Overall, the intervention costs US$ 41 million, which was yearly dis- bursed in various amounts over the 2006-2010 period. The key output variables (incremental net benefit, disease cost, and benefit cost ratio) were estimated for each randomly drawn risk parameter. With a 12% annual discount rate, the results show that the intervention was economically justified under the endemic scenario with high mortality risk. On average, incremental benefit under this scenario amounted to US$ 63.7 million, incremental net benefit to US$27.2 million, and benefit cost ratio estimated to 1.75.
关键词：avian influenza;infection control;biological risk management;damage function;incremental net benefit