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标题：Spatio-temporal analysis of the avalanche hazard in the North of Italy
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作者：Orietta Nicolis ; Renato Assunção
期刊名称：Statistica
印刷版ISSN：1973-2201
出版年度：2013
卷号：73
期号：1
页码：123-138
DOI：10.6092/issn.1973-2201/3990
语种：English
出版社：Dep. of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", Università di Bologna
摘要：The study of avalanche events is particularly important to assess and predict the degree of risk involved in a given area and time. In this work we consider an alternative methodology based on a space-time point process where the intensity function indicates the limiting expected rate of occurrence of snow avalanches occurring on day t at location (x, y), conditioned on the historical information available prior to time t . The model depends also on some environmental variables (degree of slope, exposure, altitude, etc.) which may be considered as covariates. In order to show the spatio temporalmodeling of the avalanche hazardwe consider the application to the digitalized Avalanche Database of the Trentino region, Italy.
关键词：snow avalanche events;spatial point process;conditional intensity;space-time pattern;hazard map