文章基本信息

标题：Assessing the economic and productive impact of climate change in a Mediterranean irrigated agricultural area subject to water shortage
作者：Gabriele Dono ; Raffaele Cortignani ; Luca Giraldo 等
期刊名称：Economia e Diritto Agroalimentare
印刷版ISSN：1970-9498
出版年度：2012
卷号：17
期号：3
页码：395-414
DOI：10.14601/EDA-11873
语种：Italian
出版社：Economia e Diritto Agroalimentare
摘要：Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature etc.) at different times of crop cycles. Many physical and technical relationships have to be represented even when analyzing a limited aspect of farm management. This work employs the net evapotranspiration (ETN) estimated with the EPIC model, as a synthetic index of the physical factors that the farmer considers in decisions on irrigation. The probability distribution of ETN is inserted into a territorial model of DSP that represents farm choices in conditions of uncertainty about water availability and irrigation requirements of crops. Recent trends of ETN suggest that the probability distribution of this variable may appreciably change in the near future. Also, water availabil- ity may become more variable due to changed rainfall. These modifications amplify uncertainty of management and, consequently, costs incurred by the farm typologies of the study area, which in many cases suffer an appreciable drop in income.
其他摘要：Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature etc.) at different times of crop cycles. Many physical and technical relationships have to be represented even when analyzing a limited aspect of farm management. This work employs the net evapotranspiration (ETN) estimated with the EPIC model, as a synthetic index of the physical factors that the farmer considers in decisions on irrigation. The probability distribution of ETN is inserted into a territorial model of DSP that represents farm choices in conditions of uncertainty about water availability and irrigation requirements of crops. Recent trends of ETN suggest that the probability distribution of this variable may appreciably change in the near future. Also, water availabil- ity may become more variable due to changed rainfall. These modifications amplify uncertainty of management and, consequently, costs incurred by the farm typologies of the study area, which in many cases suffer an appreciable drop in income.