文章基本信息

标题：Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models
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作者：Sergio Iannazzo
期刊名称：Farmeconomia. Health economics and therapeutic pathways
印刷版ISSN：2240-256X
出版年度：2007
卷号：8
期号：1
页码：5-13
DOI：10.7175/fe.v8i1.251
语种：Italian
出版社：SEEd
摘要：Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.
关键词：Bayesian statistic methods;Probabilistic simulation;Markov model;WinBUGS