文章基本信息

标题：Comparison between ARIMA and DES Methods of Forecasting Population for Housing Demand in Johor
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作者：Ahmad Rizal Alias ; Ahmad Rizal Alias ; Noor Yasmin Zainun 等
期刊名称：MATEC Web of Conferences
电子版ISSN：2261-236X
出版年度：2016
卷号：81
页码：1-5
DOI：10.1051/matecconf/20168107002
语种：English
出版社：EDP Sciences
摘要：Forecasting accuracy is a primary criterion in selecting appropriate method of prediction. Even though there are various methods of forecasting however not all of these methods are able to predict with good accuracy. This paper presents an evaluation of two methods of population forecasting for housing demand. These methods are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Both of the methods are principally adopting univariate time series analysis which uses past and present data for forecasting. Secondary data obtained from Department of Statistics, Malaysia was used to forecast population for housing demand in Johor. Forecasting processes had generated 14 models to each of the methods and these models where evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was found that 14 of Double Exponential Smoothing models and also 14 of ARIMA models had resulted to 1.674% and 5.524% of average MAPE values respectively. Hence, the Double Exponential Smoothing method outperformed the ARIMA method by reducing 4.00 % in forecasting model population for Johor state. These findings help researchers and government agency in selecting appropriate forecasting model for housing demand.