文章基本信息

标题：Estudio de tendencias climáticas y generación de escenarios regionales de cambio climático en una cuenca hidrográfica binacional en América del Sur
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作者：Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso ; Joaquín Bosque Sendra
期刊名称：Estudios Geográficos
印刷版ISSN：0014-1496
电子版ISSN：1988-8546
出版年度：2011
卷号：72
期号：270
页码：147-172
DOI：10.3989/estgeogr.201107
语种：Spanish
出版社：Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
摘要：Despite the fact that there is no agreement among scientists about global warming, climate change, and their effects, there is no doubt that the availability of water resources depends to a great extent on climate. With the purpose of seeking evidence of climate change, the tendencies of the historical series of rainfall and temperature recorded in 40 climate stations located in the Ecuadorian-Peruvian border were studied by applying a fourth order moving average filter. After considering two different scenarios of climate evolution which were proposed by the IPCC, and applying 8 general circulation models, future regional scenarios of rainfall and temperature towards the year were generated toward the future years of 2025, 2050 and 2080. Evidence of climate change was found, and increasing trend of temperature, which is consistent with the volume of emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the scenarios analyzed, considerable climate disorders are forecasted with a steady increase in temperature and an oscillating decrease in rainfall.
关键词：Climate change;climatic trend;Hydrological scenario;Magicc Scengen;Catamayo Chira;Cambio climático;tendencia climática;escenario hidrológico;Magicc Scengen;Catamayo Chira;changement climatique;l’évolution du climat;hydrologiques stade;Magicc Scengen;Catamayo Chira