摘要：Bio-based chemicals are being touted as the next big thing for the chemical industry and its customers. In particular they can offer significant opportunity for the chemical industry and its customers through cost reduction, delivering unique functionality and / or marketing benefits. This article undertakes to better characterize the make-up of the bio-based chemical industry, in terms of technology platforms employed and sales, as well as to develop scenarios for the growth of the bio-based chemical market. As can be shown, the market for bio-based chemicals is comparatively small, 50–75 Bn EUR or 3–4 % of global chemical industry sales. Future growth is strongly determined by a number of high-uncertainty developments including technology breakthroughs and government policy. It can nevertheless be concluded that bio-based chemicals sales will continue to grow and outpace general chemical industry growth. In particular, the dedicated production of chemicals through biocatalysis and fermentation is expected to exhibit strong growth in all scenarios. However, a wholesale transformation of the industry is not expected, with bio-based chemicals constituting another option in the chemical industry toolkit, causing a more or less gradual shift from a petroleum-based industry towards one with additional feedstock options.
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