文章基本信息

标题：Recent progress toward reducing the uncertainty in tropical low cloud feedback and climate sensitivity: a review
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作者：Youichi Kamae ; Youichi Kamae ; Tomoo Ogura 等
期刊名称：Geoscience Letters
电子版ISSN：2196-4092
出版年度：2016
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：1-10
DOI：10.1186/s40562-016-0053-4
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is a key index for understanding the Earth’s climate history and prediction of future climate changes. Tropical low cloud feedback, the predominant factor for uncertainty in modeled ECS, diverges both in sign and magnitude among climate models. Despite its importance, the uncertainty in ECS and low cloud feedback remains a challenge. Recently, researches based on observations and climate models have demonstrated a possibility that the tropical low cloud feedback in a perturbed climate can be constrained by the observed relationship between cloud, sea surface temperature and atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The observational constraint on the tropical low cloud feedback suggests a higher ECS range than raw range obtained from climate model simulations. In addition, newly devised modeling frameworks that address both spreads among different model structures and parameter settings have contributed to evaluate possible ranges of the uncertainty in ECS and low cloud feedback. Further observational and modeling approaches and their combinations may help to advance toward dispelling the clouds of uncertainty.
关键词：KeywordsEnClimate sensitivityCloud feedbackMulti-model ensemblePerturbed physics ensemble