文章基本信息

标题：Consumer value of fuel choice flexibility - a case study of the flex-fuel car in Sweden
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作者：Niclas A. Krüger ; Niclas A. Krüger ; Alexander Haglund 等
期刊名称：European Transport Research Review
印刷版ISSN：1867-0717
电子版ISSN：1866-8887
出版年度：2013
卷号：5
期号：4
页码：207-215
DOI：10.1007/s12544-013-0104-2
语种：English
出版社：Springer
摘要：Abstract Purpose This paper examines the value of fuel choice flexibility derived from a flex-fuel engine. Method Based on the stochastic properties of fuel prices, we use Monte-Carlo simulation in order to value the option to switch fuel. Results Our findings indicate a considerable value of fuel choice flexibility, ranging between 7,500 and 37,800 SEK, depending on the underlying stochastic process we assume that fuel prices follow. This can be compared to the state subsidy of 10,000 SEK provided until recently for buying a flex-fuel car. Conclusion Compared to an environmentally friendly pure ethanol strategy, the switching strategy is considerably less costly, about 2,000–19,000 SEK depending on the assumed underlying stochastic process, a fact that is important to take into consideration with environmental policy.
关键词：Real option analysis;Flex-fuel car;Mean-reversion;Geometric Brownian motion