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标题：Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl) cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach
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作者：A Ranjan ; T Bhatnagar
期刊名称：Indian Journal of Community Health
印刷版ISSN：2248-9509
出版年度：2013
卷号：25
期号：4
页码：386-390
语种：English
出版社：Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Chapter
摘要：Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH) based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases). Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures.
其他摘要：Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH) based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases). Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures.
关键词：Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL);Bayesian;Under-Reporting