文章基本信息

标题：An Objective Approach to Reliability-Based Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Coastal Infrastructure Development
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作者：Wu, Wen ; Lo, Sik-Cheung Robert ; Wang, Xiao 等
期刊名称：Labour and Management in Development
印刷版ISSN：1443-6698
出版年度：2011
卷号：11
期号：0
语种：English
出版社：Revista Eletrônica de Administração;Electronic Review of Management;Revista Electrónica de Administración
摘要：There are numerous kinds of uncertainties involved with coastal infrastructure projects, which may lead to a range of potential risks. The probabilistic approach, which is also referred to as reliability analysis, is one of the essential ways in evaluating the impacts of uncertainties involved in coastal infrastructure development. This article proposes an objective approach incorporating uncertainty; risk assessment; and mitigation measures in order to facilitate the decision making processes involved with coastal infrastructure development. Basic probability-related concepts, including reliability index, are firstly introduced. A stochastic cost-benefit analysis is presented using an example that illustrates the modelling of uncertain future climate events. The general concept of quantitative risk assessment, where risk is considered as a product of both the likelihood of an adverse event and its consequences, are then demonstrated. This is the underpinning concept for the use of ranking matrix in risk management. The importance of the consequence analysis is also emphasized. Compared with the conventional deterministic evaluation method, the probabilistic approach incorporating uncertain type provides an effective way to examine the feasibility and the reliability of coastal infrastructure development. The methodology presented in this paper is in line with the United Nations International Strategy on Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) terminology to avoid the ‘mix-up’ between low likelihood and low risk, and to avoid the confusion between extreme disaster and extreme events. Finally, the paper indicates a potential application of this method for other fields, such as environmental risk assessment in environmental protection and management activities.
关键词：Uncertainty; Probability of failure; Reliability index; Risk assessment; Coastal infrastructure development