文章基本信息

标题：Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka
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作者：Wasana Aberathna ; Lakshman Alles ; W. N. Wickremasinghe 等
期刊名称：Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1391-4987
电子版ISSN：2424-6271
出版年度：2014
卷号：15
期号：3
页码：141-170
DOI：10.4038/sljastats.v15i3.7794
语种：English
出版社：The Institute of Applied Statistics, Sri Lanka
摘要：The purpose of this study is to develop sex-specific mortality estimation models using historical mortality data for Sri Lanka, based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee and Carter (1992). Historical mortality data was analyzed in the light of significant historical episodes. Several alternative univariate time series models were examined for modeling males and females, as well as a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model when fitted to the first differenced series performed better than the univariate models and hence used for forecasting purposes. From the estimated VAR model, mortality forecasts were generated for the period up to 2030 and life tables were generated for the selected periods of 2006-2008.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4038/sljastats.v15i3.7794
关键词：Applied Statistics; Statistics;Ageing; Mortality forecasting; life tables; Sri Lanka